It's the Border/Immigration?

Are tighter restrictions and mass deportations the solution?

During Donald Trump’s campaign for President he claimed that “A vote for Kamala Harris means 40 or 50 million more illegal aliens will invade across our borders, stealing your money, stealing your jobs, stealing your life.” He also claims that illegal aliens are responsible for the fentanyl crisis and child sex trafficking. His proposed solution is to deport what he claims are 22 million undocumented aliens and strengthen the southern border by completing the border wall, deploying National Guard and possibly Federal troops. So, will Trump’s proposed policies increase employment, lower crime, and solve the fentanyl crisis? Will a border wall and military forces at the border reduce the flow of immigrants trying to enter the US. Did Kamala Harris’s policies result in a massive increase in border crossings?

A brief history of US immigration policy

Although Trump has said that “immigrants are poisoning the blood of our country” immigrants are the blood of our country. Only native Americans can claim to be otherwise. Founded as a grand experiment in self rule, America grew to be the most prosperous nation in the world and a beacon for those seeking freedom and opportunity through immigration.

In the early days immigration was heavily promoted as a means of recruiting citizens to build the country and defend the borders. In 1882 the US congress enacted the Immigration Act of 1882, the first major legislation intended to regulate immigration. The primary purpose was to exclude anyone deemed a “convict, lunatic, idiot, or person unable to take care of himself or herself without becoming a public charge”.

The last major overhaul of our immigration system was the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act, passed in 1965. This bill removed preferential treatment of northern Europeans and terminated the bracero program which had granted temporary work visas for seasonal workers from Mexico. With no legal way to enter the US and an unchanged demand for farmworkers, illegal crossings spiked from an annual average of about 30,000 per year to over 400,000 in 1974. Since then, in spite of multiple failed attempts, Congress has been unable to pass legislation that would address the mismatch between demand and supply.

During his first administration Donald Trump promised to build a wall along the southern border and implemented 472 executive actions intended to suppress immigration. (ref) Although these actions resulted in double digit decreases in green card applications, beginning in July of 2018 unauthorized border crossings began to surge. From the start of his administration to the peak in May of 2019 they grew by 270%. (click here for details)

At the beginning of Biden’s term border crossings had resumed their climb, quickly reached the previous peak, and ultimately climbed to historic levels. By December of 2023 the surge began to decline as quickly as it started.

During this period the Biden administration made two attempts to pass legislation addressing immigration. The Build Back Better Act, passed by the House in November of 2021 with no Republican votes, included several provisions to modernize the immigration system. (ref). During Senate negotiations a highly modified version with no immigration provisions titled the Inflation Reduction Act, was passed by the Senate and signed into law in August of 2022.

The second attempt at meaningful legislation was S.4361, a bipartisan Senate bill focused solely on border security and authored by James Lankford and Kyrsten Sinema with the support of Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell. After objections by Donald Trump and a warning from the House majority leader that it would be dead on arrival it failed to pass in the Senate. (ref)

Will Trump’s Policies be Effective?

In spite of Trump’s claims, crime rates have been declining since the 90’s with no evidence of crime increasing during the unprecedented rise in border crossings. (ref) And research consistently shows that immigrants, undocumented or otherwise, are less likely to commit crimes than natural born citizens. It seems unlikely that deporting large numbers of undocumented aliens will have any effect.

In an earlier post titled “It’s the Economy” I questioned the premise that our economy is struggling. In fact the US economy has made a remarkable recovery from the covid shock. It’s hard to see how mass deportations or further restrictions on immigration will make things better.

Mass deportations and tighter border restrictions may have an effect on illegal immigration, but due to the inability to reform our immigration system undocumented aliens make up a large percentage of our work force in construction, services, and agriculture. This suggests that if immigrants are removed and excluded our economy is in for a serious shock. (ref)

Finally, as demonstrated by countries like Japan who are resistant to immigration, without it our population will begin to shrink, causing serious economic problems. (ref)

What’s Next?

So what is the solution to our immigration crisis? The information above suggests that suppressing immigration will not lower crime or improve the economy. In fact, immigration will be an important component for our current and future economic success. (ref) So what is the best path forward? Is immigration required for our future prosperity? If so, how should it be regulated? How can we pass sensible immigration reforms in the current climate of xenophobia and alternative facts? Share your thoughts in the comments.